More people die in ambulances than in Ubers.

But nobody reads that and swears off ambulances. You can see the third thing that connects the two without even trying → people who were already sick ride in ambulances.

Half the health advice on your social feeds runs on that same logic. Some complicated looking infographic correlating A to B, to make it feel like whatever “guru” presenting it has discovered something, while completely ignoring that third real CAUSE.

  • Kids with bigger feet are better readers.

    • Third thing: age.

  • Men who fall asleep with their shoes on wake up with headaches.

    • Third thing: tequila.

  • Ice cream sales rise with shark attacks.

    • Third thing: summer.

  • People who do keto lose weight.

    • Third thing: calories.

Those are easy-ish to catch because they're silly but the ones that actually cost you something usually come with citations.

For example everyone thought a glass of red wine protected your heart for the past 40 years. Study after study showed wine drinkers outliving non-drinkers.

Then in 2023, researchers went back and re-analyzed 4.8 million people and found the "non-drinkers" group was full of men who had quit drinking because their health was already failing.

Compare wine against sick quitters and wine looks like medicine. Fix the comparison and the survival benefit disappears (JAMA Network Open, 2023).

Third thing: sick quitters.

So ask the question I ask before any claim gets to change what I eat, drink, or pour: what's the third thing?

If a headline connects A to B, hunt for the C driving both. Sometimes you find it in 10 seconds. Sometimes there isn't one and the claim survives. Either way, you thought for yourself and made the call instead of letting the headline make it for you.

In your corner,

Coach Zack

P.S. Better yet, make me do it. Reply with the health claim you’re curious about, and I'll either find its third thing or confirm the real mechanism. I read every reply.